About H1N1 vaccine, H1N1vaccine production, H1N1 vaccine manufacturers

As the United States prepares for the upcoming flu season, a group of researchers supported by the National Institutes of Health continues to model how H1N1 may spread.

The work is part of an effort, called the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS), to develop computational models for conducting virtual experiments of how emerging pathogens could spread with and without interventions. The study involves more than 50 scientists with expertise in epidemiology, infectious diseases, computational biology, statistics, social sciences, physics, computer sciences and informatics.

As soon as the first cases of H1N1 infections were reported in April 2009, MIDAS researchers started gathering data on viral spread and affected populations. This information enabled them to model the potential outcomes of different interventions, including vaccination, treatment with antiviral medications and school closures. The work built upon earlier models the MIDAS scientists developed in response to concerns about a different potentially pandemic influenza strain H5N1 or avian flu.

“Computational modeling can be a powerful tool for understanding how a disease outbreak is unfolding and predicting the implications of specific public health measures,” said Jeremy M. Berg, Ph.D., director of the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, which supports MIDAS. “During the H1N1 pandemic, MIDAS scientists applied their models to see what they could do to help in a real situation.”

Because the H1N1 flu strain is still circulating, a MIDAS group based at the University of Washington in Seattle is now studying the impact the virus could have this fall and winter. Its model, which represents the world population, includes information about immunity — how many people are protected by vaccination or prior infection

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